Question Investing & Investments during crisis

[couragewolf]

Right now bitcoin and ETH are sideshows for crypto the tidal wave of activity is stablecoin cross border settlement payment rails and real world asset tokenization in the trillions. The next wave will be all the tradfi schemas for counter-trade, risk insurances, forfeiting, and chain of custody turning into smart contracts and entire institutions just vaporizing as it takes place.

lol a16z just dropped a report that stable coin transaction volumes have hit 46 trillion. Compare that to the market cap of bitcoin and I think you see where I'm going.

 

[star.3d]

I'm skeptical, but I guess a volume of $46T per year is possible. But you're comparing apples and oranges. BTC trading volume is like $18T/yr, but its capitalization is ~$2T. All cryptocurrencies tally ~$3.6T. The entire US stock market cap is ~$69T and the entire global market cap is ~$160T.

 

[H. Bowman]

It’s not that simple. If you weren’t either a gambler or a tech nerd you wouldn’t have put money into crypto. That entire system was targeted by different administrations so its resilience is something. Plus the swings 50-80% losses and gains. This number is in the 10’s out of billions of people.

The issue is with more of the general population who don’t have the capability to manage that kind of risk.

I'm no tech nerd and I despise gambling. I spent a lot of time studying and learning about it and bought in to crypto the first time BTC was in the 2k range. Fractional ETFs exist with zero commission trades. The internet is free. Everyone has the ability to learn how to invest these days without spending anything other than the time and effort they invest in themselves. There is an extremely low barrier to entry and an extremely high number of people complaining that they're being limited by others.

Anyone in todays US, who has a financial ability to meet their basic needs (which does not include booze, cigarettes, the latest iphone, designer clothes, concert tickets, etc etc etc) who complains about not being unable to invest in their own future is blaming someone else for their own lack of motivation/initiative/discipline. Yes, some people are not able to because they legitimately are scraping by or falling behind and not blowing money on they don't need. But it's an extremely small number out of the ones complaining about it.

You can invest with five dollars and free wifi at McDonalds. If someone says they can't invest due to being oppressed, but they've had starbucks or beer or smokes or restaurant meals or, or, or, they're playing the victim instead of trying to improve.

 

[ikeo1]

You can invest with five dollars and free wifi at McDonalds. If someone says they can't invest due to being oppressed, but they've had starbucks or beer or smokes or restaurant meals or, or, or, they're playing the victim instead of trying to improve.

If you invested when it was 2k that assumes it was around 2015 ish. That’s still before people really knew about bitcoin.

How did you learn about it? That’s also one way but you don’t seem to acknowledge that the rules are being stacked against people. Education continues to be cut for decades now with less priority on education. Investing favors those who already had assets or disposable income.

Ironically where you say people who legitimately need it are fewer than the people that take from the system is off. They have to qualify for the system so that seems more like an enforcement issue.

The other issue is that as tax rates go down for the people with assets expenses are increasing for people who’s rates remain the same or go up through tariff prices.

So this begs the question, do you think the system is rigged to support corporations and megadonors or do they have the same equal status as citizens? And are monopolies a good thing?

While I agree you can pull yourself out of poverty. 51% of all billion dollar+ startups and tech companies are founded by immigrants or children of immigrants these days. What do you do about the people who don’t have the ambition or hunger?

Do you leave them behind? What does that do to crime rates? Does that make the country stronger or does it change to oligarchy? How do you actually lift the fabric of society with your method? Is the outcome that the country becomes stronger?

Crypto itself was built because of the way the government works. If you studied it then you understand the basis was to equalize and democratize money. It is being taken over by the very people it was meant to go against that’s the only way the value goes up is because rich people and finance are finally catching on but it’s already moving beyond what people can afford. There was a window of opportunity to make big gains. That window where you got the kind of gains we did closed at least for crypto. Gain will happen but not that large.

 

[star.3d]

I mean... the 'investments' sold to poor/uneducated people are called scams or grift - timeshares, unaccredited education, loans, the lottery, life insurance, annuities, collectibles. To invest, they'd first have to dig themselves out of about $100,000 of debt (at a median(!) wage of $19/hr).

I'm with @ikeo1 - people aren't inherently stupid, we live in a system that's stacked against us. Most minorities will tell you that the whole "bootstrapping" your life is a lie... and many white people inherit inter-generational wealth in the form of real estate, college funds, dollars, etc in an amount that necessitates investing or is already invested. It's kinda like religion... if your parents didn't invest, chances are you won't either. Yes, of course there are exceptions. But if you were born poor, you're liable to die poor.

 

[H. Bowman]

If you invested when it was 2k that assumes it was around 2015 ish. That’s still before people really knew about bitcoin.

How did you learn about it? That’s also one way but you don’t seem to acknowledge that the rules are being stacked against people. Education continues to be cut for decades now with less priority on education. Investing favors those who already had assets or disposable income.

Ironically where you say people who legitimately need it are fewer than the people that take from the system is off. They have to qualify for the system so that seems more like an enforcement issue.

The other issue is that as tax rates go down for the people with assets expenses are increasing for people who’s rates remain the same or go up through tariff prices.

So this begs the question, do you think the system is rigged to support corporations and megadonors or do they have the same equal status as citizens? And are monopolies a good thing?

While I agree you can pull yourself out of poverty. 51% of all billion dollar+ startups and tech companies are founded by immigrants or children of immigrants these days. What do you do about the people who don’t have the ambition or hunger?

Do you leave them behind? What does that do to crime rates? Does that make the country stronger or does it change to oligarchy? How do you actually lift the fabric of society with your method? Is the outcome that the country becomes stronger?

Crypto itself was built because of the way the government works. If you studied it then you understand the basis was to equalize and democratize money. It is being taken over by the very people it was meant to go against that’s the only way the value goes up is because rich people and finance are finally catching on but it’s already moving beyond what people can afford. There was a window of opportunity to make big gains. That window where you got the kind of gains we did closed at least for crypto. Gain will happen but not that large.

That's a lot of words to completely miss the point.

 

[H. Bowman]

I mean... the 'investments' sold to poor/uneducated people are called scams or grift - timeshares, unaccredited education, loans, the lottery, life insurance, annuities, collectibles. To invest, they'd first have to dig themselves out of about $100,000 of debt (at a median(!) wage of $19/hr).

I'm with @ikeo1 - people aren't inherently stupid, we live in a system that's stacked against us. Most minorities will tell you that the whole "bootstrapping" your life is a lie... and many white people inherit inter-generational wealth in the form of real estate, college funds, dollars, etc in an amount that necessitates investing or is already invested. It's kinda like religion... if your parents didn't invest, chances are you won't either. Yes, of course there are exceptions. But if you were born poor, you're liable to die poor.

We live in a world where there is more information available, faster, better organized, easier to fact check, and free to all, than in any point in the history of the world.

If someone is unwilling to take the time to learn new information and skills and then complain that the system is stacked against them because they refuse to take the time to read free educational material that will teach them how to be able to better themselves and their lives, there's not much more to say about it I guess. Anyone that wants to learn how to invest, and has the mental capacity of a high school student, they can learn how to do it, for free, and participate. The system is stacked less against people than ever before. People can buy and sell in the market from their phone while taking a dump in the morning without having to put on a suit and go to a broker and transfer real paperwork around. How does anyone think it's harder now than it was then? That's just silly.

Yea. Lots of folks start out in poverty but poor is a mindset, not a title. The resources are there for nearly anyone to gain new education and new skills and get "ahead". The same information is available, and free, for folks living on food stamps wearing hand me downs in a trailer that is available to those born with a trust fund already set up for them.

"Oh, but the system is holding me down, it's not MY fault I don't seek out education and put any effort in!" is absolutely a victim mentality.

 

[ikeo1]

That's a lot of words to completely miss the point.

I get your point you missed mine. Were top 10%. Not everyone can be but you seem to think everyone can, this can’t be true. As an individual you get the point, as a society is the point you’re missing.

Ideally everyone would do well but that’s not reality. The point isn’t handouts but giving people the right tools rather than taking advantage.

I get where you’re coming from but I like to help people help themselves. IMO it's better for society/community.

 

[H. Bowman]

Everyone has the tools available. If they choose not to use them, I'm not going to push them to do what they don't want to do.

On the other hand,, if someone wants to learn and is willing to put the time in to do so, I bend over backwards to help them. Help those who help themselves, something something. Just like if you've got a kid who doesn't want to eat what you made for dinner and demands something else be made just for them...well. Too bad, guess you'll be hungry. Your plate will be on the table when you're ready for it but you don't get special treatment just for whining.

 

[star.3d]

We live in a world where there is more information available, faster, better organized, easier to fact check, and free to all, than in any point in the history of the world.

Easier to fact check?! I would say we're closer to a post-truth world... Even restricting that statement to the stock market, I would say many stocks are decoupled from underlying economic performance or realities (lookin at you, tech). There may be a lot of information on the web, but it's mostly junk.

If someone is unwilling to take the time to learn new information and skills and then complain that the system is stacked against them because they refuse to take the time to read free educational material that will teach them how to be able to better themselves and their lives, there's not much more to say about it I guess

But the reality is that before any young (naïve) person right now can get to financial information that you and I believe is factual or wise... they have to evade an absolute deluge of scams and financial pitfalls. Like have you noticed the meteoric rise in buy-now-pay-later (BNPL)? Or CashApp scams? Or predatory auto lending? Or fraudulent 'educational' opportunities? It's a lot...

 

[H. Bowman]

Easier to fact check?! I would say we're closer to a post-truth world... Even restricting that statement to the stock market, I would say many stocks are decoupled from underlying economic performance or realities (lookin at you, tech). There may be a lot of information on the web, but it's mostly junk.

But the reality is that before any young (naïve) person right now can get to financial information that you and I believe is factual or wise... they have to evade an absolute deluge of scams and financial pitfalls. Like have you noticed the meteoric rise in buy-now-pay-later (BNPL)? Or CashApp scams? Or predatory auto lending? Or fraudulent 'educational' opportunities? It's a lot...

You don't think someone with free unobstructed access to the most powerful information sharing network in the history of ever can learn about those?

Are they not capable of typing in "how to avoid cash app scams" or "is this auto loan a good deal?" into any search engine and spending five minutes reading the results?

Are they not able to look up "what are good low risk investment ideas to get started?"

If someone is unwilling to spend five minutes helping themselves, why should I spend significantly more than that in time and money to help them and have them ignore it and still get the 27% loan on an 80k dollar truck that costs three years of their annual income, as well as take a credit card advance to buy penny stocks because some reddit thread said to? Sometimes you have to let people fail, if they choose to be idiots.

 

[H. Bowman]

Anyone get scammed on cashapp this week?


Today is up quite a bit. Hope some folks who trade did some buying on Friday. I don't typically do any short term stuff but SYM caught my eye a little while back and I'm pretty dang happy with what it's doing for me. I'm going to sell a quarter or so today for profit taking and let the rest ride as free house money. Worth looking into for some who have higher risk tolerance. They build the machinery that runs automated warehouses like Amazon.

 

[H. Bowman]

What's everyone doing for tax harvesting and end of year investments?

 

[ikeo1]

What's everyone doing for tax harvesting and end of year investments?

Selling the losers man , fortunately crypto is a property so no wash sales. Dumped losers and swapped into alternatives to roll it over. Next year I’m thinking of selling a property so still holding on to some

 

[H. Bowman]

I don't have much in crypto currently, other than enough BTCI for dividends to give me some free shares a couple times a year. I'm half ass thinking about dumping all or most of my Boeing, even though I'm back above water on it now. Lost opportunity cost in the last 5 years by having money tied up in it that could have been elsewhere is annoying. But I also still think it has a good chance of making me a bunch of money so I may just flip a coin on Monday and let Two Face decide.

 

[H. Bowman]

I'm also considering dumping my NANC stock since she's retired/ing and I don't think she'll have to disclose her trades anymore? Will have to research that a bit and see. It was more of a fun novelty stock purchase anyway. I'll look at the GOP one as well and see if I want to hang on for entertainment.

Also, buy a bunch of CMP Remington 40x and Winchester 52D rifles. They're only going up in value and are way more fun than digital ETFs.

 

[NorCALSpeed]

The whitehouse strategy for engaging the market appears to be:

- Assume no recessions
- Financing tbills short range
- Riding inflation until it's so politically untenable something breaks
- push dollar value down and print like crazy(bidenomics 2.0?)

Seems to me owning assets like real estate are definitely good but there's the self defeating outcome that employment is very likely to hit a hard wall probably in the nearer term 26 atleast.

DOGE as an effort effectively failed completely to reduce government spending so the printer can't stop.

Index investing is going to work great until a top hits but the other side of that top is nothing like we've ever seen in the history of America.

The fed can either save the dollar by keeping inflation higher for longer positioning us for recovery, or save the economy for another quarter or two by crushing the dollar on the long end of the treasury curve. I don't see where the win is for dollar holders or recipients of US government services.

The trifecta of dollar down bonds down and stocks down is absolutely probable in this scenario leaving the Fed powerless to catch any falling knives with interest rates manipulation it's a mosquito on the windshield of a semi truck. They will always sell dollars to buy bonds to solve their problem.


Gold is gaining serious steam in the face of this, crypto shows some promise but it's really hard to forsee how you come up on these events without betting against everything working out.

The future of the Fed has me pretty concerned. For now I'm glad there's a committee that decides interest rates but the more loyalists that get put in the more risk I see that he keeps knocking interest down and causing inflation to run. There's a lot of precedent for this sort of thing.

However, I'm not experienced nor bold enough to short anything right now because of the above. Things seem very overheated (and by many markers, they are) but if the printer keeps running and buybacks remain legal (they were illegal until the 80s), we can see continuing rise. No way this admin wants the market to fall before the midterms.

I'd go with real estate if I could. Maybe be cautious on the loan size or leverage because if lots of people lose their jobs (due to a crash), your tenants will stop paying the rent and then the bank will scoop it up.

It's a weird time and I do not like it.

 

[HarleyLowRiderST]

I'd go with real estate if I could. Maybe be cautious on the loan size or leverage because if lots of people lose their jobs (due to a crash), your tenants will stop paying the rent and then the bank will scoop it up.

It's a weird time and I do not like it.

What is this "Crypto" thing you guys are talking about? Sounds like one of those big UP and DOWN rollercoaster rides at Magic Mountain.

S&P 500 and a very diversified portfolio for me. I've learned to let a professional manage it for me. I don't own any individual stocks, all Mutual Funds, REITs,

I used to own several rentals (a duplex, a 4 plex, and 2 condos). 1031'd exchanged them into REITs. Real Estate Investment Trusts. Now own shares in very large real estate portfolios managed by JLL and other large holding companies. Basically you get shares that appreciate, and quarterly rent paid by the likes of UPS, Shell Oil, Shopping Centers, etc. Zero interactions with tenants. As an example, I own a small percentage of a huge UPS Warehouse in Kentucky. Never seen it but get a check every quarter.

Being a landlord in CA had grown to be a nightmare.

 

[ikeo1]

My bags are still heavy.. finally a bit of life.. been buying little by little

 

[Sheepdog1968]

What is this "Crypto" thing you guys are talking about? Sounds like one of those big UP and DOWN rollercoaster rides at Magic Mountain.

S&P 500 and a very diversified portfolio for me. I've learned to let a professional manage it for me. I don't own any individual stocks, all Mutual Funds, REITs,

I used to own several rentals (a duplex, a 4 plex, and 2 condos). 1031'd exchanged them into REITs. Real Estate Investment Trusts. Now own shares in very large real estate portfolios managed by JLL and other large holding companies. Basically you get shares that appreciate, and quarterly rent paid by the likes of UPS, Shell Oil, Shopping Centers, etc. Zero interactions with tenants. As an example, I own a small percentage of a huge UPS Warehouse in Kentucky. Never seen it but get a check every quarter.

Being a landlord in CA had grown to be a nightmare.

I know several people who have nightmare stories being a landlord. REITs do have some advantages for sure as well as some laws being clear about payouts.