Question Investing & Investments during crisis

[Luciansulla]

VOO go up. VOO goes down, buy extra VOO.

That’s it. That’s the plan. Invest regularly and often in an index fund, and buy more if possible during a market downturn.

 

[couragewolf]

Been a long time since I plugged in here. Summary of my incorrect previous statements: noone ever imagined how quickly china could destroy oil demand within their country, nor how how strategic reserve would come online. Pretty staggering to see how both of those scenarios have played out.

Bond market is now losing it's over tax receipts being such a small fraction of debt growth, and Bessent has no good choices. I think the plan is to punish the boomers and vacuum up their net worth by debasing the currency and trading that for the illusion of continued market growth while quietly reducing any entitlements they thought they were getting going into retirement. Basically it's either that, or you start bouncing checks to the military or cutting spending from stuff that currently contributes to the GDP, or allowing the bond market to flop. None of those are options so the Boomers get the stick.

Stock market will continue to look like it's climbing but in gold terms it'll be a wash or worse(inspite of a correction and retrace), bitcoin may break out may not. Housing market is def gonna take a beating and private credit will be a ghost town.

I think gold holders will be the winners in this story. Maybe we get some factories back but groceries will cost twice as much a few times over?

 

[exnds]

I think gold holders will be the winners in this story. Maybe we get some factories back but groceries will cost twice as much a few times over?

I think the gold money has already been made.

 

[couragewolf]

I think the gold money has already been made.

Reserve currency is spending at like 140% it's tax receipts right now. When you say gold money are you saying money is Yuan, USD, Yen?

 

[gorgothmog]

The more I look, the more it seems like there's a coordinated effort from the tech bros (Musk, Thiel), the national security state, and military industrial complex to end American supremacy. This last war exposed our shortcomings as a superpower. It's a clear strategic defeat. Our government was tricked into waging war only to have its bases destroyed by what everyone perceived to be a third-rate military. In most ways Iran has a third-rate military compared to ours, except for strategic planning, execution, and asymmetric warefare. Iran has spent decades preparing for this exact scenario, and they have prevailed simply by surviving. The bond markets are in turmoil, gold is spiking, and now we're openly talking about economic warefare, simply becase we can't wage actual warefare. Nukes or a ground invasion are the only two options left on the table.

 

[couragewolf]

The more I look, the more it seems like there's a coordinated effort from the tech bros (Musk, Thiel), the national security state, and military industrial complex to end American supremacy. This last war exposed our shortcomings as a superpower. It's a clear strategic defeat. Our government was tricked into waging war only to have its bases destroyed by what everyone perceived to be a third-rate military. In most ways Iran has a third-rate military compared to ours, except for strategic planning, execution, and asymmetric warefare. Iran has spent decades preparing for this exact scenario, and they have prevailed simply by surviving. The bond markets are in turmoil, gold is spiking, and now we're openly talking about economic warefare, simply becase we can't wage actual warefare. Nukes or a ground invasion are the only two options left on the table.

I don't think they're trying to end American supremacy. They're trying to remove "Americans" from the decision making process. Marc Andreeson is plenty delusional, and most of them worship Curtis Yarvins philosophy. They want to move back to a form of feudalism where people with the command of capital and technology are basically the kings, and the rest of us are serfs.

So they'll talk all day about freedom and western values and protecting them etc, but then they'll turn right around and install a surveillance and propaganda state only China could dream of. It's all a dog and pony show.

How this affects investment is they're going to debase the heck out of the US dollar which really doesn't affect any of them because they're already so rich and locked in on assets. For savers they get nuked. We actually manage to reshore in that scenario, but holy cow it'll come at the cost of jobs and the value of our savings accounts.

THe only reason Iran happened is hubris. We were told it was going to be fast and easy and they fell for it.

 

[exnds]

Reserve currency is spending at like 140% it's tax receipts right now. When you say gold money are you saying money is Yuan, USD, Yen?

I meant spot gold prices. The easy money was made in the last couple of years.

 

[NorCALSpeed]

I don't think they're trying to end American supremacy. They're trying to remove "Americans" from the decision making process. Marc Andreeson is plenty delusional, and most of them worship Curtis Yarvins philosophy. They want to move back to a form of feudalism where people with the command of capital and technology are basically the kings, and the rest of us are serfs.

So they'll talk all day about freedom and western values and protecting them etc, but then they'll turn right around and install a surveillance and propaganda state only China could dream of. It's all a dog and pony show.

How this affects investment is they're going to debase the heck out of the US dollar which really doesn't affect any of them because they're already so rich and locked in on assets. For savers they get nuked. We actually manage to reshore in that scenario, but holy cow it'll come at the cost of jobs and the value of our savings accounts.

THe only reason Iran happened is hubris. We were told it was going to be fast and easy and they fell for it.

Yeah this is my concern as well. A lot of what they're doing is following Russia's model but with more tech modifications. Add in drones/robots and you remove a lot of the humans from conflict which 1. Makes it easier to sell to the public, at least from a PR standpoint. 2. Remove human accountability (happening with Flock right now).

The debasing of the currency is risky for them. If inflation runs too hot the people might actually mass protest but it's not really part of our culture the way it is in France or other countries.

Weird times.

 

[couragewolf]

Yeah this is my concern as well. A lot of what they're doing is following Russia's model but with more tech modifications. Add in drones/robots and you remove a lot of the humans from conflict which 1. Makes it easier to sell to the public, at least from a PR standpoint. 2. Remove human accountability (happening with Flock right now).

The debasing of the currency is risky for them. If inflation runs too hot the people might actually mass protest but it's not really part of our culture the way it is in France or other countries.

Weird times.

Sure it's risky to debase the currency, but you have to look at what their other options are.

 

[couragewolf]

I meant spot gold prices. The easy money was made in the last couple of years.

Gromen has the Chinese central bank pricing gold at like $20k USD presently

 

[RustVendor]

I don't think they're trying to end American supremacy. They're trying to remove "Americans" from the decision making process. Marc Andreeson is plenty delusional, and most of them worship Curtis Yarvins philosophy. They want to move back to a form of feudalism where people with the command of capital and technology are basically the kings, and the rest of us are serfs.

So they'll talk all day about freedom and western values and protecting them etc, but then they'll turn right around and install a surveillance and propaganda state only China could dream of. It's all a dog and pony show.

How this affects investment is they're going to debase the heck out of the US dollar which really doesn't affect any of them because they're already so rich and locked in on assets. For savers they get nuked. We actually manage to reshore in that scenario, but holy cow it'll come at the cost of jobs and the value of our savings accounts.

THe only reason Iran happened is hubris. We were told it was going to be fast and easy and they fell for it.

ALL OF THIS. It's interesting to read the Project 2025 materials because there is at least some coherent (if psychotic) underlying ideology with tarriffs, mass deportation etc. But in practice Trump doesn't actually subscribe to any of it and has since used tarriffs, Iran, ICE etc. to simply exercise power according to his moods and whims and investments.

 

[Sheepdog1968]

I graduated from college in 1990. That’s when I first heard folks talk about gold and silver as investment vehicles. In the late 1990s, my stock broker sent me a graph of long term investments. Gold was near the bottom of the list. Long term, the best investment has been the stock market. That’s how I’ve done it and retirement will be ok for me. You want gold, wait till you’ve saved up $1 MM by traditional methods then consider other investment vehicles. Also have a good friend who really truly felt the US stock market was gonna tank. It hasn’t. All my own personal opinions and not stock or investment advice.

 

[RustVendor]

I graduated from college in 1990. That’s when I first heard folks talk about gold and silver as investment vehicles. In the late 1990s, my stock broker sent me a graph of long term investments. Gold was near the bottom of the list. Long term, the best investment has been the stock market. That’s how I’ve done it and retirement will be ok for me. You want gold, wait till you’ve saved up $1 MM by traditional methods then consider other investment vehicles. Also have a good friend who really truly felt the US stock market was gonna tank. It hasn’t. All my own personal opinions and not stock or investment advice.

a potential tipping point is that boomers own over half the stock market, we have seen growth because no one has cashed out. The vast majority of those market balances will need to be cashed out and donated to the medical industry and care homes as boomers age.

 

[Sheepdog1968]

a potential tipping point is that boomers own over half the stock market, we have seen growth because no one has cashed out. The vast majority of those market balances will need to be cashed out and donated to the medical industry and care homes as boomers age.

Yea, I’ve heard these kind of arguments before when Boomers were going to inherit from the Greatest Generation and it didn’t come to pass. Very little is new under the sun. There is a book in which part of the title is “confessions of a stock operator.” Written over 100 years ago. Worth reading as you will recognize much of what is said there. Also should read “The Crash” I think by Peter Galbert (I think). Coming up on 100 years since the 1920s crash. Again, similar themes. That’s why I don’t worry about all of this. Nothing is new under the sun. If it does happen, I would need to continue to work.

Also, if you ask me what I think is the safest form of wealth it would be land. If you can get land in which you have your own water, trees for heat and building materials, and you can hunt on it, and can grow food or raise animals. You start to depend less and less on markets. Buy as much beans and rice as you can just in case and where you invest the rest becomes less important. I’ve got some friends who have essentially done it. Yes, it does increase their time doing chores on the homestead. As long as they can pay property taxes, they are safe.

 

[RustVendor]

Yea, I’ve heard these kind of arguments before when Boomers were going to inherit from the Greatest Generation and it didn’t come to pass. Very little is new under the sun. There is a book in which part of the title is “confessions of a stock operator.” Written over 100 years ago. Worth reading as you will recognize much of what is said there. Also should read “The Crash” I think by Peter Galbert (I think). Coming up on 100 years since the 1920s crash. Again, similar themes. That’s why I don’t worry about all of this. Nothing is new under the sun. If it does happen, I would need to continue to work.

Also, if you ask me what I think is the safest form of wealth it would be land. If you can get land in which you have your own water, trees for heat and building materials, and you can hunt on it, and can grow food or raise animals. You start to depend less and less on markets. Buy as much beans and rice as you can just in case and where you invest the rest becomes less important. I’ve got some friends who have essentially done it. Yes, it does increase their time doing chores on the homestead. As long as they can pay property taxes, they are safe.

Probably "The Great Crash 1929" John Galbraith, but that's the thing. The crash is what we are worried about . The crash was significant. I haven't read that book I may get it on audible, but the commonly understood that the crash was due to a speculative bubble. We are absolutely in a speculative bubble. The synopsis for that book says that "people were expecting to not have to work" via the stock market. So with boomers we have a situation where life expectancy has never been higher, medicine has never been both more effective and more expensive. The Greatest Generation had a life expectancy of 50 years, today it's 80 years. All that said, we obviously don't know what will happen and it would be dumb to take your money out of the market based on any of this. But I do think there will be a lot less wealth transfer from boomers to us than we think, all of those assets will be liquidated to support 30+ years of retirement and medical expense. Assisted living is like 10k a month in Ca these days it's wild, a couple needing 5-10 years at the end of their life will need a million dollars in assets just to wait around to die.

 

[Sheepdog1968]

Probably "The Great Crash 1929" John Galbraith, but that's the thing. The crash is what we are worried about . The crash was significant. I haven't read that book I may get it on audible, but the commonly understood that the crash was due to a speculative bubble. We are absolutely in a speculative bubble. The synopsis for that book says that "people were expecting to not have to work" via the stock market. So with boomers we have a situation where life expectancy has never been higher, medicine has never been both more effective and more expensive. The Greatest Generation had a life expectancy of 50 years, today it's 80 years. All that said, we obviously don't know what will happen and it would be dumb to take your money out of the market based on any of this. But I do think there will be a lot less wealth transfer from boomers to us than we think, all of those assets will be liquidated to support 30+ years of retirement and medical expense. Assisted living is like 10k a month in Ca these days it's wild, a couple needing 5-10 years at the end of their life will need a million dollars in assets just to wait around to die.

Yea, that’s the book. I read it 25 years ago. Life is expensive no doubt. There is assisted living insurance but good policies aren’t cheap for a good policy. Again, one needs to save hard for all of this to happen.

 

[RustVendor]

Yea, that’s the book. I read it 25 years ago. Life is expensive no doubt. There is assisted living insurance but good policies aren’t cheap for a good policy. Again, one needs to save hard for all of this to happen.

I"m thinking of my uncle that died a few years ago, he was fairly wealthy he was an computer and electric engineer that sold some patents in the 80s and 90s in silicon valley. My whole life I was told there would be a significant inheritance when he died split between my cousins and I. Instead his wife and him were in assisted living and he's now gone, his wife has alzheimers and had to spend every last penny so that the state would start paying for the care and she's just living out her days like that with absolutely nothing completely dependent. They had a multimillion dollar nest egg and even that wasn't enough. They moved from Marin to ohio after selling the house he bought for 45k for 1.5 million. They didn't just spend it either, these aren't the kind of retirees that RV all over the place, he would build all of his own furniture. But anyway, pretty sure millenials in general don't even have a plan.

 

[Sheepdog1968]

I"m thinking of my uncle that died a few years ago, he was fairly wealthy he was a computer and electric engineer that sold some patents in the 80s and 90s in silicon valley. My whole life I was told there would be a significant inheritance when he died split between my cousins and I. Instead his wife and him were in assisted living and he's now gone, his wife has alzheimers and had to spend every last penny so that the state would start paying for the care and she's just living out her days like that with absolutely nothing completely dependent. They had a multimillion dollar nest egg and even that wasn't enough. They moved from Marin to ohio after selling the house he bought for 45k for 1.5 million. They didn't just spend it either, these aren't the kind of retirees that RV all over the place, he would build all of his own furniture. But anyway, pretty sure millenials in general don't even have a plan.

I have looked into at home caregiver insurance. Per Dave Ramsey, one should get it at age 60. Both my dad and grandma got the best policies they could as they reached a similar age. And yes, it really drained their wealth. Not that long ago, I reached out to my term life provider to ask about. For my wife and I to each get $1 M total value coverage with another $1M coverage that can be used for either of us, with 3% value increase compounding from when I get it, it will cost a total of about $2,400 per month. Save hard when you are young, you will need it when you are older. I’ve seen plenty of people I know who haven’t saved properly and it makes old age stressful and miserable. I think one needs to put away at least 20% of their gross earnings to have enough in retirement. Most of my life, I’ve had a side hustle (we Gen Xers called it a second job) so I could both live modestly and save enough retirement. You can do it. Just takes some discipline. Most importantly, make sure you marry the right individual who is like minded. I’ve know coulples where one is a saver and one is a spender; not good. Better to not marry that kind of person. Anyway, my two cents on the topic.

 

[DrJonesUSA]

I graduated from college in 1990. That’s when I first heard folks talk about gold and silver as investment vehicles. In the late 1990s, my stock broker sent me a graph of long term investments. Gold was near the bottom of the list. Long term, the best investment has been the stock market. That’s how I’ve done it and retirement will be ok for me. You want gold, wait till you’ve saved up $1 MM by traditional methods then consider other investment vehicles. Also have a good friend who really truly felt the US stock market was gonna tank. It hasn’t. All my own personal opinions and not stock or investment advice.

I mean no offense, but you either drastically misunderstood, or were given wildly incorrect advice.
We need to be extraordinarily careful and precise - almost pedantic - with our choice + use of language when discussing this.
I can tell you definitively that gold & silver are not “investment vehicles” in the traditional sense.

99.99%++ of people, when you say “investment” or anything of the sort, they think of stocks / bonds / mutual funds, or any similar vehicle / product where you put money in, either do not touch it or have it professionally managed, and let the magic of time & compound interest do its thing.

That is NOT how gold & silver work, nor how they should be viewed.

Gold & Silver are WEALTH PRESERVATION ASSETS.
Gold & silver also actually ARE money.

Dollar bills (really any form of paper currency) as well as the zeroes & ones in your bank account are FAKE money.
They do not exist, in any tangible sense.
They also have zero actual value:
Dollars are only worth what someone else says they are, and they only have value because we collectively agree they do.

Gold & silver, on the other hand, have intrinsic, inherent value and have been used as REAL money since their discovery.

You purchase gold & silver not hoping that they will double, triple, or more in value (though that is a slight possible benefit); you buy gold & silver because they will virtually never DECREASE in value in any substantial way. They allow you to “lock in” any wealth that you have gained so far, via fake fiat currency.

Anytime throughout history (and it has happened a LOT) that a fake fiat currency collapses or is devalued / hyper-inflated, or similar calamity; gold & silver are some of the only things that retain meaningful value & protect their owners from being totally ruined & bankrupted along with most of the rest of that society.

Gold & silver are hedges against inflation, currency debasement, etc. etc.
They are not - and should not be viewed as - “investments” in the traditional sense.

However, everyone should absolutely hold at least a little; at least 5-10% of their total assets / net worth should be in physical gold.

Maybe later I can post details, but in one of his many awesome books, Jim (James) Rickards illustrated how putting only 10% of your assets into gold or silver can safeguard most of your wealth through even catastrophic broader economic losses.

Finally, I’ll close with this;
First off; your stock broker is just that; a stock broker. Not an investment / wealth manager.
Gold & silver has always been at the bottom of those peoples’ lists because they cannot profit off of it. There are no commissions, maintenance fees & other profits to be had for stock brokers, when their clients purchase physical gold & silver.

If gold is really such a piss-poor asset; why is it that literally every single central bank in the planet not only stores thousands of tons of it, but has drastically increased their gold purchasing over the past 10+ years?

It’s good enough for the banks that literally run and fund the world, but not for the average citizen? How does that make sense?

And we haven’t even touched on the current & upcoming existential threats posed by CBDC, draconian taxes on NET WORTH, further taxes on investment accounts, bank bail-ins, etc. etc. etc. There is so much more to consider when looking at gold & silver vs. other places to park your wealth & currency.

Anyway…. There you have it.

 

[DrJonesUSA]

Yea, I’ve heard these kind of arguments before when Boomers were going to inherit from the Greatest Generation and it didn’t come to pass. Very little is new under the sun. There is a book in which part of the title is “confessions of a stock operator.” Written over 100 years ago. Worth reading as you will recognize much of what is said there. Also should read “The Crash” I think by Peter Galbert (I think). Coming up on 100 years since the 1920s crash. Again, similar themes. That’s why I don’t worry about all of this. Nothing is new under the sun. If it does happen, I would need to continue to work.

Also, if you ask me what I think is the safest form of wealth it would be land. If you can get land in which you have your own water, trees for heat and building materials, and you can hunt on it, and can grow food or raise animals. You start to depend less and less on markets. Buy as much beans and rice as you can just in case and where you invest the rest becomes less important. I’ve got some friends who have essentially done it. Yes, it does increase their time doing chores on the homestead. As long as they can pay property taxes, they are safe.

Please help me understand;

In theory I agree that land is one of the best investments one can make. It is cliche but objectively true that “they aren’t making any more of it.”
Additionally; look at how many people have become extremely wealthy specifically because of real estate, and/or how many very wealthy people absolutely park a lot of cash into real estate to safeguard their wealth.

That said; for someone who isn’t already wealthy; how DO you - on a very practical, nitty-gritty, daily basis; how DO You afford land?
I’m not talking commercial nor residential real estate; that’s obvious. They (should) cash flow or could be made to with some work & investment.

But raw land as you refer to where you can hunt, grow food, etc; how do you bear the costs of property taxes - which can be very significant - as well as handle maintenance & upkeep costs?

Stuff as basic as fencing; you need to either do the work yourself - and buy materials, which isn’t cheap - or pay someone to do it for you.
I’m sure there are all sorts of other costs associated with raw land that I’ve forgotten about; various permits & junk.
Oh; wells…. Where do you get water? How do you pay for that? Wells are not cheap to drill nor maintain.

Can you please help enlighten me on this?
I’ve always wondered about it.