Question Investing & Investments during crisis

[gorgothmog]

Do you guys do it?

How many of you are going to hold, buy, or sell?

Typically we see asset prices dip before they rebound. I think these points in time offer some key opportunities to build wealth. With debt as high as it is, we're likely to spend more on military funding now and reduce our spend within the United States. There's going to be a resource shift, so tell me what your thoughts are?

Personally, I'm heading into Precious Metals for safe haven for now and of course the SPY index. Individual stocks, I'll take a break, but I'm thinking some PUTS on high flyers might be an interesting strategy to try with some $$. Selling equities for hard assets.

I sold half my stake in gold as it's going through a slight correction, and then I'm putting my haul right back into dollar cost averaging it.

 

[Sheepdog1968]

I have been dollar cost averaging (mostly via 401k) in S&P 500 index funds since 1998. I’ve seen all kinds of crisis since then. I don’t pull out. It has all worked out and I will be able to retire somewhere between 60 and 65. I’m not rich but will be able to retire. Investing isn’t hard; actually doing it and and being consistent over the years and decades is the hard part.

 

[ikeo1]

I have been dollar cost averaging (mostly via 401k) in S&P 500 index funds since 1998. I’ve seen all kinds of crisis since then. I don’t pull out. It has all worked out and I will be able to retire somewhere between 60 and 65. I’m not rich but will be able to retire. Investing isn’t hard; actually doing it and and being consistent over the years and decades is the hard part.

I'm still dollar cost averaging too, but mainly sticking AI related stocks. I tried to the rare earths but that wave came and went. I left some in there just to test but AI and Crypto... I usually go for the trends...

 

[couragewolf]

I'm still dollar cost averaging too, but mainly sticking AI related stocks. I tried to the rare earths but that wave came and went. I left some in there just to test but AI and Crypto... I usually go for the trends...

I generally go with longer window macro. My thesis for crypto is that dollar repatriation overseas will result in significant RWA activity.

On top of that the big beautiful bill increased tax writeoffs specifically for oil and gas carbon credits so I believe oil majors are investing heavily in carbon capture technologies to establish a foothold on those credits(also benefits crypto).

The value prop in crypto is so well established I think its a no brainer, but with AI it's far more nebulous to me. One of my former colleagues the other day posted that he had completely recreated the training process of GPT4 for 100$ and gave a detailed explanation of how.

What did that cost OpenAI to do? 70 BIllion? It's beyond madness. Nevermind that the return vs investment function is completely broken. LLMs may already be a dead end and there's simply no telling where the next format of AI modeling is going to spark a new breakout

I think we haven't even begun to see what small specialized models do to different industries right now almost noone even knows how to effectively use the LLMs we have, and nevermind the throttling scenarios from Anthropic and Open AI

 

[gorgothmog]

I generally go with longer window macro. My thesis for crypto is that dollar repatriation overseas will result in significant RWA activity.

On top of that the big beautiful bill increased tax writeoffs specifically for oil and gas carbon credits so I believe oil majors are investing heavily in carbon capture technologies to establish a foothold on those credits(also benefits crypto).

The value prop in crypto is so well established I think its a no brainer, but with AI it's far more nebulous to me. One of my former colleagues the other day posted that he had completely recreated the training process of GPT4 for 100$ and gave a detailed explanation of how.

What did that cost OpenAI to do? 70 BIllion? It's beyond madness. Nevermind that the return vs investment function is completely broken. LLMs may already be a dead end and there's simply no telling where the next format of AI modeling is going to spark a new breakout

I think we haven't even begun to see what small specialized models do to different industries right now almost noone even knows how to effectively use the LLMs we have, and nevermind the throttling scenarios from Anthropic and Open AI

F*cking nailed it, bro. This is a great take on what is happening. It's such a huge hype bubble right now, and we are seeing the elastic reponse play itself out in ripples across the economy, right now. Sure there are other headwinds in the economy, but for some reason the stock market just keeps skyrocketing, and we're about to head right over the political cliff with the political shutdown. This underlines the real wealth disparity that this system has defecated on our collective doormats.

 

[couragewolf]

F*cking nailed it, bro. This is a great take on what is happening. It's such a huge hype bubble right now, and we are seeing the elastic reponse play itself out in ripples across the economy, right now. Sure there are other headwinds in the economy, but for some reason the stock market just keeps skyrocketing, and we're about to head right over the political cliff with the political shutdown. This underlines the real wealth disparity that this system has defecated on our collective doormats.

For what it's worth when I say almost noone knows how to use LLMs we have now my implication is they're pretty underutilized. I think the technology is deeply misunderstood because it's so easy to interact with and get ty outputs it's hard for people to wrap their heads around what interacting with it in a very structured and informed way can actually accomplish. It's gonna take years I think for people to figure this out, and the big models will be raising funds again soon so wherever that trainwreck happens in space and time I can't predict but simultaneously smaller cheaper modes of very effective job wood chipper machines will just be proliferating everywhere.

 

[Wolkenflieger]

ETFs and $TSLA HODLer. Also some NVDA.

Rentals are good but...renters. Read too many horror stories. I see the upside due to appreciation of property if the neighborhood and property value hold and/or appreciate. This requires an astute understanding of property, trends, and location from a prospective owner.

Renters have copious legal protection even when they're horrible, and they can do a lot to undermine a rental.

 

[couragewolf]

ETFs and $TSLA HODLer. Also some NVDA.

Rentals are good but...renters. Read too many horror stories. I see the upside due to appreciation of property if the neighborhood and property value hold and/or appreciate. This requires an astute understanding of property, trends, and location from a prospective owner.

Renters have copious legal protection even when they're horrible, and they can do a lot to undermine a rental.

I'm under the impression that these horror stories are two sided as it comes to rentals. I have people in my family who own properties and have been renting it for ages and they've never had a single real problem in decades. I'm guessing they're not the corner case.

 

[couragewolf]

The fed is really threading this needle about as tight as they can, inflationary pressures vs serious headwinds.

The rock and a hard place issue is impossible.

 

[H. Bowman]

Even with crazy hype bubbles, billionaires are made.

 

[Wolkenflieger]

I'm under the impression that these horror stories are two sided as it comes to rentals. I have people in my family who own properties and have been renting it for ages and they've never had a single real problem in decades. I'm guessing they're not the corner case.

No doubt stories of all kinds, good and bad. It helps if you can vet tenants yourself.

 

[couragewolf]

Even with crazy hype bubbles, billionaires are made.

I mean, when the system is designed to concentrate wealth in a small group of people regardless of actual economic outcomes yeah the small group of people it's concentrated within make a lot of money

 

[Joker67]

ETFs and $TSLA HODLer. Also some NVDA.

Rentals are good but...renters. Read too many horror stories. I see the upside due to appreciation of property if the neighborhood and property value hold and/or appreciate. This requires an astute understanding of property, trends, and location from a prospective owner.

Renters have copious legal protection even when they're horrible, and they can do a lot to undermine a rental.

We’ve had some migrant /illlegal families move into our area. Semi nuisance lifestyle . At some point they get new cars. It’s because they stop paying rent until the sheriff puts the notice on the door. They have extra cash . They disappear and are off to the next rental to do it again. They work the system living rent free.

 

[H. Bowman]

I mean, when the system is designed to concentrate wealth in a small group of people regardless of actual economic outcomes yeah the small group of people it's concentrated within make a lot of money

Sounds like something someone with a victim mentality would say.

Bitcoin is a perfect example. Loads of people have made hella money on the "tulip bubble" of crypto, which certainly ain't a system designed to concentrate wealth in a small group of people. Winners win, regardless of the things the people around them claim are barriers.

 

[ikeo1]

Sounds like something someone with a victim mentality would say.

Bitcoin is a perfect example. Loads of people have made hella money on the "tulip bubble" of crypto, which certainly ain't a system designed to concentrate wealth in a small group of people. Winners win, regardless of the things the people around them claim are barriers.

It’s not that simple. If you weren’t either a gambler or a tech nerd you wouldn’t have put money into crypto. That entire system was targeted by different administrations so its resilience is something. Plus the swings 50-80% losses and gains. This number is in the 10’s out of billions of people.

The issue is with more of the general population who don’t have the capability to manage that kind of risk.

So do you believe in monopolies and that they should be allowed without intervention? Do you believe in taking advantage of the weak?

You’re not wrong, you can lift yourself out but there’s a systemic issue of keeping the population down with our own tax payer money plus marketing manipulation. The odds are against most and shifting towards being more difficult

 

[star.3d]

Winners win, regardless of the things the people around them claim are barriers.

So you're comfortable with the US gov't and politicians winning every time at our expense?

100% agree with @ikeo1 - we spent a lifetime bashing China for being a "market manipulator" and now our own government is doing that on the daily and in flagrant violation of Article 1 Section 9.

 

[star.3d]

If you weren’t either a gambler or a tech nerd you wouldn’t have put money into crypto.

Cryptocurrency in 5yrs (post-Trumpification) is going to a look a lot different than 2008 - it already does. I see it as an extension of forex trading, but with much higher volatility, and I expect its sovereignty will continue to erode under the proposed US adoption. I'm certain none of us here are bona fide quant traders, day traders, or selling options contracts, so if volatility sounds 'good' I'm guessing folks are either gambling or losing money right now.

(Given the above statement, daily pick: BTCI)

 

[couragewolf]

Cryptocurrency in 5yrs (post-Trumpification) is going to a look a lot different than 2008 - it already does. I see it as an extension of forex trading, but with much higher volatility, and I expect its sovereignty will continue to erode under the proposed US adoption. I'm certain none of us here are bona fide quant traders, day traders, or selling options contracts, so if volatility sounds 'good' I'm guessing folks are either gambling or losing money right now.

(Given the above statement, daily pick: BTCI)

Why are you certain of that?

 

[star.3d]

amiright or amiright?

Obviously we could all be making some money in equities/bonds right now - I meant that more because of the heavy emphasis here on crypto and trading (vs investing).

 

[couragewolf]

amiright or amiright?

Obviously we could all be making some money in equities/bonds right now - I meant that more because of the heavy emphasis here on crypto and trading (vs investing).

You'd be surprised at the number of quants that have moved from tradfi consulting to crypto liquidity pool and staking service development