Domestic American economy about to get crushed?

[NorCALSpeed]

Weren't we in a long bull market throughout Obama's presidency?

Yes. And statistically speaking, the economy grows more under Dem. admins and than under Rep. ones. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._... 2021, The New,2.4 percent under Republicans ...

Additional source

Tertiary source

 

[TheAverageShooter]

Yes. And statistically speaking, the economy grows more under Dem. admins and than under Rep. ones. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_by_presidential_party#:~:text=In February 2021, The New,2.4 percent under Republicans ...

Additional source

Tertiary source

Be careful of the old saying, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. When quoting these numbers keep in mind that many times politicians can control policy, but the impact of the policy on the economy can take many years to come to fruition. It is normally better to look at big impactful events during tenure and the impact on the economy that came after. A good example is that of the Covid shutdowns during Trump's first term, that was way more pronounced in Dem run states like CA, where the numbers before the shutdown were really good.

 

[NorCALSpeed]

Be careful of the old saying, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. When quoting these numbers keep in mind that many times politicians can control policy, but the impact of the policy on the economy can take many years to come to fruition. It is normally better to look at big impactful events during tenure and the impact on the economy that came after. A good example is that of the Covid shutdowns during Trump's first term, that was way more pronounced in Dem run states like CA, where the numbers before the shutdown were really good.

Sure but that's why I also listed 3 sources. There are many other studies similar. Not to drag us in the weeds but the current admin campaigned on how much cheaper things would instantly be once he was elected, and things are not. It will remain to be seen if GDP is up in three more years, so that's why I look at the markers from the past.

 

[couragewolf]

Luke Gromen on the polychrisis, US printing 500 billion a week in short issuance treasuries because long issuance demand has dried up, bitcoin drop is the canary in the coal mine. The whitehouse is selling austerity to Americans while implementing it to try and save the bond market rather than letting hyperinflation carry the economy to correction that's inevitable.

Luke still long BTC Long gold

 

[ikeo1]

I'm getting brutalized, but just spun up a validator. I was hoping POTUS would've done a better overall job with the economy early on, but it seems the market has other ideas.

 

[couragewolf]

I'm getting brutalized, but just spun up a validator. I was hoping POTUS would've done a better overall job with the economy early on, but it seems the market has other ideas.

I’m not one to pin a lot of political hope on politicians but as someone who has worked in crypto for the better part of the last 6 years I truly feel potus has taken what could have been an absolutely flawless victory and turned it into a complete clown show that will actually take some undoing by more rational actors.

I knew as soon as David Sacks was named the crypto tzar we were screwed that guy is a complete window licker.

 

[NorCALSpeed]

I’m not one to pin a lot of political hope on politicians but as someone who has worked in crypto for the better part of the last 6 years I truly feel potus has taken what could have been an absolutely flawless victory and turned it into a complete clown show that will actually take some undoing by more rational actors.

I knew as soon as David Sacks was named the crypto tzar we were screwed that guy is a complete window licker.

He got what he needed: Selling his coin to his base and to Binance. It's a fantastic way to have a money funnel.

 

[ikeo1]

He got what he needed: Selling his coin to his base and to Binance. It's a fantastic way to have a money funnel.

he milked the cow early and is likely deprioritizing it now that the initial money wore off. I think it’ll be back when it’s convenient. If it is manipulation then it should still come back. They sell now and buy later then buy it back after then make some announcements and change some policies

 

[couragewolf]

he milked the cow early and is likely deprioritizing it now that the initial money wore off. I think it’ll be back when it’s convenient. If it is manipulation then it should still come back. They sell now and buy later then buy it back after then make some announcements and change some policies

Bessent is going to front load treasuries by trying to force banks into stable coin adoption to create a false sense of security as treasuries get hoovered up to support wavering real demand for treasuries (500 billion a week right now insane).

This will all seem like brilliant strategy for a brief period until the catchup and then it’s time to put up or shut up again. I think the dream is somehow managing to kick the can until the next presidency so someone else can own it but highly unlikely that’s even possible at this rate.

They may even completely circumvent the Fed here. Dark waters ahead.

 

[ikeo1]

Bessent is going to front load treasuries by trying to force banks into stable coin adoption to create a false sense of security as treasuries get hoovered up to support wavering real demand for treasuries (500 billion a week right now insane).

This will all seem like brilliant strategy for a brief period until the catchup and then it’s time to put up or shut up again. I think the dream is somehow managing to kick the can until the next presidency so someone else can own it but highly unlikely that’s even possible at this rate.

They may even completely circumvent the Fed here. Dark waters ahead.

Yeah I was certain POTUS would do everything to pump up the markets like he did during the pandemic, then let the consequences be felt while Biden was in place then he could come in and pump it up before ultimately let it deflate again. It’s still possible the printers are going to turn on but the downturn has been pretty dramatic and fast.

They sucked $1 Trillion out of crypto we’ll see how far they take it before it pumps back if it does but still accumulating on the down as the up and just continuing to add to the staking fund

 

[star.3d]

The 'downturn' is only in crypto... which I don't take as a harbinger, except that it anticipates more nefarious, self-serving crypto efforts by a select few. Do y'all not have equities exposure? Or options strategies? Treasuries are not going the way Trump and Bessent want - right now they're just digging the hole deeper. Their manipulations of the American economic system is a means to an end... which is power.

 

[couragewolf]

The 'downturn' is only in crypto... which I don't take as a harbinger, except that it anticipates more nefarious, self-serving crypto efforts by a select few. Do y'all not have equities exposure? Or options strategies? Treasuries are not going the way Trump and Bessent want - right now they're just digging the hole deeper. Their manipulations of the American economic system is a means to an end... which is power.

Take a look at auto loan defaults, real estate prices/time on market, and holiday sales figures/hiring.

The crypto downturn is just broader evidence of illiquidity as Gromen describes in the video I posted above.

 

[couragewolf]

Heading into a commodity strong stablecoin driven growth cycle, equities softening in '26, China leading gold vol. Interesting take:

 

[couragewolf]

The United States just locked in a spending plan that blows out tax revenues and all but guarantees a debt growth over the near term of 16 trillion dollars.

The goal of deflating the debt also means your assets lose value including whatever savings or real estate or anything else you own.

Of course, all of this pretends everyone will keep buying our treasuries at auction which seems absurd to expect continuing.

Your stocks are going up sure, relative to the value of EVERYTHING else everyone owns. How long that can continue seems suspect at best the market is full casino mode at this point.

Heeeeeey how those treasuries auctions participation looking since I said this friends? For those of you unwilling to look it up they’re absolutely dismal.

 

[star.3d]

Not sure what you're reading/watching, but the demand for treasuries is still strong. Bid to cover ratios on auctions the past few weeks are ~2 to 3.

5yr note 11/25:

 

[Jimi Jah]

Bitcoin dropped $40,000 in two months. Silver is at all time highs. Silver demand is outpacing supply.

Gold is once again pushing $4300/ounce. Oil is at about $58/barrel. Yet gas is still 5 bucks around here while other states are around 2 bucks. The dollar is a mess from oversupply and our massive 40 trillion dollar debt. Intrest payments exceeds our entire military budget.

As long as our corrupt government keeps borrowing and printing money nothing will improve. Your kids will have to pick up the pieces. That is their inheritance.

 

[couragewolf]

Not sure what you're reading/watching, but the demand for treasuries is still strong. Bid to cover ratios on auctions the past few weeks are ~2 to 3.

5yr note 11/25:
View attachment 120594

Give this a watch and let’s re assess the treasuries auctions participation rates discussion

 

[sklepych]

53% of American adults read below a 6th grade level. 34% score the lowest levels of numeracy tests, struggling with basic math.

And these people wholeheartedly think I took their job with my physics PhD. That`s why staying here as a scientist is becoming a big issue.

 

[NorCALSpeed]

AI is causing more and more people to be laid off. Prices are up. Credit card debt just hit an all time high. People are financing groceries.

I don't think we're headed to a good place. I don't know if there will be a recession but these situations don't feel like the making of a healthy society.

 

[couragewolf]

AI is causing more and more people to be laid off. Prices are up. Credit card debt just hit an all time high. People are financing groceries.

I don't think we're headed to a good place. I don't know if there will be a recession but these situations don't feel like the making of a healthy society.

i think depending on which vertical you assess a good amount of the population is actually already deep in depression era economics. The talking heads are pitching the idea that 4% unemployment is real right now so obviously we can no longer use stats to arrive at reasonable conclusions.

I think the reality is a significant percentage of people are living in abject poverty and a smaller percentage are experiencing the best economy imaginable. A lot of trades people are riding the wave of liquidity spending but you’re about to see that hit a wall at full speed

As an example my wife has been beating me over the head for a year to hire a GC to redo our kitchen. As of the last two months she’s conceded that i should buy all the tools and provide her a project plan and do it all myself other than the electrical.

See how quick things change