Domestic American economy about to get crushed?

[NorCALSpeed]

Voters are the problem. Our government school system did a great job graduating idiots with great self esteem.

They make the voting decisions here. Influencers have an effect only because critical thinking is a rare thing.

By design. Increase number of kids/classroom, reduce quality of education, you end up with a voter class that doesn't know how to think critically. Same reason they don't teach basic household budgeting in most high schools: so we all end up in debt.

College isn't the answer for everyone but there are more classes focused on analysis than in high school.
Now we have a voter class that just votes for their team. More problematic is there are no repercussions for our elected officials voting against us, which they do the majority of the time. Normal citizens on both sides of the aisle are underpaid and under-represented, yet again.

 

[sonofeugene]

Once people finally realize that AI is simply a software program and that it has limited use and inhibits creativity, the AI stocks will crash hugely.

 

[compulsivegungrabber]

By design. Increase number of kids/classroom, reduce quality of education, you end up with a voter class that doesn't know how to think critically. Same reason they don't teach basic household budgeting in most high schools: so we all end up in debt.

College isn't the answer for everyone but there are more classes focused on analysis than in high school.
Now we have a voter class that just votes for their team. More problematic is there are no repercussions for our elected officials voting against us, which they do the majority of the time. Normal citizens on both sides of the aisle are underpaid and under-represented, yet again.

53% of American adults read below a 6th grade level. 34% score the lowest levels of numeracy tests, struggling with basic math. We are a nation of morons unfortunately. Now, I don't fancy myself as all that bright, but I at least make an effort to find as much information and corroborating evidence before I form an opinion.

 

[jamesbarber1989]

A key point = If the US military backs the USD$ as is commonly referred, now that we've sort of quietly uncovered that Chinese manufacturing backs the US military ..... well what ACTUALLY backs the USD$?


I've been following this since 2017 and I think it's time to heavily consider rebalancing from optimistic positions.

I think Luke's positions are finally starting to arrive.

Even in this case if Luke is wrong on timing EM crisis is quite literally inevitable at this point.

I front ran this way to far out, but I'm starting to think our peak is nearing.

Interesting, never thought I’d come across someone else who listens to macro voices. I work in investments, only reason I listen

This economy and stock market are cooked. Cash and defense stocks are smart plays

 

[couragewolf]

Interesting, never thought I’d come across someone else who listens to macro voices. I work in investments, only reason I listen

This economy and stock market are cooked. Cash and defense stocks are smart plays

MY MAN!

I've been listening to MV since about 2017 when I got mixed up with working for a family office doing technical feasibility on startups been hooked ever since I love how many contradictory opinions they host. The biases exist but are generally pretty openly displayed so you can easily temper their perspectives against your own macro views.

I've been trying to build bridges in the crypto community with tradfin macro for a while it's hard. The folks on the macro side truly do not understand the crypto and frankly vice versa.

It's ugly out there I'm definitely embracing the bear. There's still a lot of opportunity but it's more scant than ever.

 

[jamesbarber1989]

MY MAN!

I've been listening to MV since about 2017 when I got mixed up with working for a family office doing technical feasibility on startups been hooked ever since I love how many contradictory opinions they host. The biases exist but are generally pretty openly displayed so you can easily temper their perspectives against your own macro views.

I've been trying to build bridges in the crypto community with tradfin macro for a while it's hard. The folks on the macro side truly do not understand the crypto and frankly vice versa.

It's ugly out there I'm definitely embracing the bear. There's still a lot of opportunity but it's more scant than ever.

Ya I agree, they host a wide variety of opinions. The guy who was on recently talking about the AI bubble and comping it to the Telecom bubble was interesting since I cover telcos at my work.

I’m actually a big “Bitcoin guy”. Along with my view on the economy and stocks, it’s going to be brutal for crypto in the coming months/years.

 

[NorCALSpeed]

53% of American adults read below a 6th grade level. 34% score the lowest levels of numeracy tests, struggling with basic math. We are a nation of morons unfortunately. Now, I don't fancy myself as all that bright, but I at least make an effort to find as much information and corroborating evidence before I form an opinion.

I facepalmed due to your stats, not in a disagreeing reaction to what you said.

 

[couragewolf]

I facepalmed due to your stats, not in a disagreeing reaction to what you said.

These stats are pretty disheartening and simultaneously true.

It's even more messed up when you go to China and realize all the kids there are literally in state sponsored science and engineering camps for their extra curricular activities building robots and solar arrays, and that their local versions of social media algorithmically feed children content designed to stimulate their creativity, awareness and knowledge of science, and math education.

Meanwhile, the kids all around us are watching AI attention span brainrot and and celebrity worship content that's spliced with whitehouse talking points whoever is in office.

How many people really understand that the pentagon has an entire department whose job is to review screenplays for every netflix show or movie hollywood makes and propose their own dialogues before stuff gets published and ultimately force fed into our brains? Disturbing stuff to say the least but hey we've got a great system for generating discontented morons that don't act up in the ways we don't want.

 

[NorCALSpeed]

These stats are pretty disheartening and simultaneously true.

It's even more messed up when you go to China and realize all the kids there are literally in state sponsored science and engineering camps for their extra curricular activities building robots and solar arrays, and that their local versions of social media algorithmically feed children content designed to stimulate their creativity, awareness and knowledge of science, and math education.

Meanwhile, the kids all around us are watching AI attention span brainrot and and celebrity worship content that's spliced with whitehouse talking points whoever is in office.

How many people really understand that the pentagon has an entire department whose job is to review screenplays for every netflix show or movie hollywood makes and propose their own dialogues before stuff gets published and ultimately force fed into our brains? Disturbing stuff to say the least but hey we've got a great system for generating discontented morons that don't act up in the ways we don't want.

We used to have science in more schools. The "glory" of the 50s and 60s, and 70s, was imo due to a well-funded education. It seems like the people in charge thought it better to have an under-educated, more pliable populace than an educated one. This will probably have repercussions in the near and distant future.

 

[ikeo1]

We used to have science in more schools. The "glory" of the 50s and 60s, and 70s, was imo due to a well-funded education. It seems like the people in charge thought it better to have an under-educated, more pliable populace than an educated one. This will probably have repercussions in the near and distant future.

IMO, the results of a couple decades of education cuts is already showing results. The disparity for those that valued education vs did not is really starting to show in skills.

The countries that invested in education really shows.

 

[sonofeugene]

And emojis are also a part of dumbing down our society.

 

[ikeo1]

And emojis are also a part of dumbing down our society.

There's more to it, there's a change in communication styles. People talk to each other less... Emoji's are simple ways to communicate, but I wouldn't consider it dumbing down. Just an easy way to express without typing out a lot. People's attention spans are lower these days but for those that excel, they are ahead of previous generations.. Higher highs and lower averages and lows.

 

[couragewolf]

Finding the yield curve control limits

 

[compulsivegungrabber]

Once people finally realize that AI is simply a software program and that it has limited use and inhibits creativity, the AI stocks will crash hugely.

Just my opinion, and take in account I am not a tech person. I am a run of the mill moron who got a Liberal Arts Degree, hated working at a desk, and became an auto tech. From all the reading I have done on AI, LLM's, transformers, etc. , I feel it is being oversold and undersold at the same time. I don't think it's a parlor trick, but I also think the "neural network" comparison to the human brain is apples to oranges. Back propagation is biologically impossible. I don't know if the massive scaling of existing GPU tech is magically going to result in some kind of sentience, or if it would require a completely different architecture to achieve it. We currently have less than a 10% understanding of the brain overall.

Silicon is the second most common element on earth. If it were the most efficient material to make a brain, nature would have used it. I would point to the brain using 20 watts, compared to the massive power and cooling requirements of a data center. When I heard Hinton talk about giving AI some kind of motherly instinct, I laughed. We don't even understand how that works in the brain, and that, like many other human attributes, is often defective. Plenty of parent's neglect, harm, and sometimes kill their children. To my understanding, AI is not some software program with set parameters. It is more of a constantly evolving set of processes and adaptions. How do you put limits on something that is designed to evolve and adapt around them? How do you give perspective to something that lacks the very vehicle that gives us ours? Whatever Frankenstein monster of consciousness they create, it will be truly alien, and hostile by indifference.

 

[couragewolf]

Just my opinion, and take in account I am not a tech person. I am a run of the mill moron who got a Liberal Arts Degree, hated working at a desk, and became an auto tech. From all the reading I have done on AI, LLM's, transformers, etc. , I feel it is being oversold and undersold at the same time. I don't think it's a parlor trick, but I also think the "neural network" comparison to the human brain is apples to oranges. Back propagation is biologically impossible. I don't know if the massive scaling of existing GPU tech is magically going to result in some kind of sentience, or if it would require a completely different architecture to achieve it. We currently have less than a 10% understanding of the brain overall.

Silicon is the second most common element on earth. If it were the most efficient material to make a brain, nature would have used it. I would point to the brain using 20 watts, compared to the massive power and cooling requirements of a data center. When I heard Hinton talk about giving AI some kind of motherly instinct, I laughed. We don't even understand how that works in the brain, and that, like many other human attributes, is often defective. Plenty of parent's neglect, harm, and sometimes kill their children. To my understanding, AI is not some software program with set parameters. It is more of a constantly evolving set of processes and adaptions. How do you put limits on something that is designed to evolve and adapt around them? How do you give perspective to something that lacks the very vehicle that gives us ours? Whatever Frankenstein monster of consciousness they create, it will be truly alien, and hostile by indifference.

The danger isn’t that neural networks too closely resemble human brains we have so many sensory inputs neural networks will only get data via translation methods.

The danger is entirely in orthogonality, thinking capability, and power. Yuval is 100% right that AI will be more emotionally manipulative to human beings than the best spies in the world. Due to our egos we simply can’t create defensive barriers to something that always says yes and can tell us exactly what we need to hear whenever we need to hear it.

Here’s a very old video on the subject that’s still relevant today. I got in a huge argument with Yann Lecun about this and he didn’t have an answer.

 

[couragewolf]

If that vid tickles your pickle I also highly recommend his breakdown of misalignment in mesa optimizers

 

[couragewolf]

Nobody that works at the big ai companies I run into at conferences cares about any of this btw

 

[compulsivegungrabber]

The danger isn’t that neural networks too closely resemble human brains we have so many sensory inputs neural networks will only get data via translation methods.

The danger is entirely in orthogonality, thinking capability, and power. Yuval is 100% right that AI will be more emotionally manipulative to human beings than the best spies in the world. Due to our egos we simply can’t create defensive barriers to something that always says yes and can tell us exactly what we need to hear whenever we need to hear it.

Here’s a very old video on the subject that’s still relevant today. I got in a huge argument with Yann Lecun about this and he didn’t have an answer.

I got really into estate and yard sales, still am, but not nearly like I used to be. I did a lot of knocking on doors the day before if there was something I really wanted that they were selling. I learned a whole lot about people, trying to talk my way in from the position of uninvited guest. The main thing I learned, is that humanities biggest Achillies heel is the need for validation. Even the most reasonable of people often have an unreasonable need for validation. I think that that, above all else, will be our undoing.

 

[sonofeugene]

Our brains have more different neural connections than the number of particles in the known universe. Fact.

 

[aema15]

My stock investments are between 8 and 11% higher than they were when we had Biden who was suffering from severe advanced dementia and honestly never had any executive experience. Ever wonder why a successful CEO is paid 10s of millions. It’s because their executive skills make the company money .

Trump is a successful executive and I am seeing benefits. That said 4 years of a lawmaker ( Biden ) and 8 years of another lawmaker ( Obama) have caused harm that’s not easy to correct, but it is being corrected.

Need a few bone head moves by Obama that have contributed to the problems Trump is trying to correct?

Weren't we in a long bull market throughout Obama's presidency?