Domestic American economy about to get crushed?

[couragewolf]

I agree, I think we're in for continued bull market, but likely more pronounced volatility spikes. I think near-term performance in non-AI stocks could be abysmal (nobody can afford anything right now, housing entirely unaffordable even with some price decreases, no job creation, gov workers not receiving pay as holiday spending starts, etc.), but the AI Ponzi scheme will continue, lifting the market for a while.

Their goal is to keep the house of cards standing until midterms, after that all bets are off.

Can they succeed? I seriously doubt it. Dimon's recent cockroach stamping declaration was pretty damned informative.

 

[couragewolf]

Rate cuts trigger inflation and that inflation floods the stock market but this all stops working when liquidity seizes up without liquidity and lending the cut rates = number go up leverage hype cycle seizes right up and value investing suddenly rears it's head again.

If I could time this I'd be a trillionaire obviously, but the writing seems pretty on the wall for how to position yourself.

The scope of a clawback in a global economy of the reserve currency market seems incalcuable.

The silicon valley bank episode is my canary in the coal mine observation for how bad things can get. I think a lot of people don't appreciate that FDIC insurance only works underspecific circumstances, and even then the FDIC insurance pool isn't designed to support TRILLIONS of dollars it has a limit.

If banks start turning over people will suddenly start realizing that money they've invested even in things like treasuries may be with companies that go bankrupt, they may be in pooled accounts that far exceed FDIC limits, and that money they thought they had or they thought was "guaranteed by the full might and bluster of the united states military" is in fact just numbers on a screen and can vanish.

People should be aware of these things when they create their stategies, while not being so terrified of the possibilities that they choose poorly.

 

[ikeo1]

POTUS speaking today at 12PM PST. Let's see how he feels today...

Pump or Dump..

 

[Jimi Jah]

Wait did the crypto craze end

Maybe. Bitcoin dropped from 122k a couple weeks ago to 107k today. Gold is over $4300.

 

[ikeo1]

Maybe. Bitcoin dropped from 122k a couple weeks ago to 107k today. Gold is over $4300.

This is just a pullback from ATH.. Gold is likely to do a pullback too at some point. I'm hesitant to buy and sell. At this point, let's just wait and see at least for gold, but the pullback on crypto I'm buying. It's kind of insane to think how much the market cap of gold has grown, in the last month it's went from $21 trillion at $3100/oz to $30 trillion nearly double the entire market cap of crypto in 6 months.

It's good to trust gold and good to trust crypto. I'm thinking Ethereum will bump up into the trillions soon enough. 1-2 trillion is already 2-4x the current value. 2x value of gold would put it at $60 trillion dollars..

 

[NorCALSpeed]

Their goal is to keep the house of cards standing until midterms, after that all bets are off.

Can they succeed? I seriously doubt it. Dimon's recent roach stamping declaration was pretty damned informative.

What did Dimon say? I was offline for a week.

 

[couragewolf]

What did Dimon say? I was offline for a week.

When announcing the tricolor collateral problems dimon basically said there were definitely more on the books

 

[TheAverageShooter]

Maybe I missed it, but isn't the obvious answer - Buy lots of Ammo!!!!

Useful in all possible scenarios and you can always get use out of it

 

[couragewolf]

Maybe I missed it, but isn't the obvious answer - Buy lots of Ammo!!!!

Useful in all possible scenarios and you can always get use out of it

I've never regretted buying ammo or reloading supplies

 

[NorCALSpeed]

Maybe I missed it, but isn't the obvious answer - Buy lots of Ammo!!!!

Useful in all possible scenarios and you can always get use out of it

True, as long as you're also securing yourself in financial ways (imo). Ammo doesn't appreciate, although buying before a surge in pricing can be seen as a form of buying low, as long as you time it right. I keep a decent cache of range and emergency stuff but the rest of my disposable trickles into the market, although right now things seem too hot.

 

[Deleted member 6005]

True, as long as you're also securing yourself in financial ways (imo). Ammo doesn't appreciate, although buying before a surge in pricing can be seen as a form of buying low, as long as you time it right. I keep a decent cache of range and emergency stuff but the rest of my disposable trickles into the market, although right now things seem too hot.

Ammo doesn't appreciate? I have cases of unopened factory 45 ACP I bought for $9/50 ages ago. I bet I could get way more for it now.

 

[NorCALSpeed]

Ammo doesn't appreciate? I have cases of unopened factory 45 ACP I bought for $9/50 ages ago. I bet I could get way more for it now.

Forgive me. I should have said "ammo probably doesn't appreciate at the rate of gold or any stock index."

Based on this chart I just found, ammo has been getting cheaper since November of 2020. In the same time, the stock market has almost doubled in value. https://blackbasin.com/ammo-prices/45-acp/

 

[packy14]

A key point = If the US military backs the USD$ as is commonly referred, now that we've sort of quietly uncovered that Chinese manufacturing backs the US military ..... well what ACTUALLY backs the USD$?


I've been following this since 2017 and I think it's time to heavily consider rebalancing from optimistic positions.

I think Luke's positions are finally starting to arrive.

Even in this case if Luke is wrong on timing EM crisis is quite literally inevitable at this point.

I front ran this way to far out, but I'm starting to think our peak is nearing.

It takes time to repair years of damage and decades of entitlements. If we don’t do it now China will own us.

 

[couragewolf]

It takes time to repair years of damage and decades of entitlements. If we don’t do it now China will own us.

The big beautiful bill increases entitlements significantly where do you see repairs to the damage of entitlements being made

 

[Jimi Jah]

It takes time to repair years of damage and decades of entitlements. If we don’t do it now China will own us.

Once the voters figured out they could vote for free stuff this experiment failed.

Now we are saddled with nearly 40 TRILLION dollars of debt. No way we can ever get that paid down.

We are toast here. Your kids will pay the price for this mismanagement.

 

[couragewolf]

Once the voters figured out they could vote for free stuff this experiment failed.

Now we are saddled with nearly 40 TRILLION dollars of debt. No way we can ever get that paid down.

We are toast here. Your kids will pay the price for this mismanagement.

By voters I assume you mean the corporations who donate to politicians and have actual representation in congress as opposed to ordinary people who have almost no influence over votes whatsoever(data backed by evidence).

Voters don’t choose anything lobbyists do.

It’s not an our kids pay the price issue I think the current generation retiring, the current workforce generation, and the following workforce generations will all be paying a very heavy toll.

 

[Jimi Jah]

Voters are the problem. Our government school system did a great job graduating idiots with great self esteem.

They make the voting decisions here. Influencers have an effect only because critical thinking is a rare thing.

 

[couragewolf]

Voters are the problem. Our government school system did a great job graduating idiots with great self esteem.

They make the voting decisions here. Influencers have an effect only because critical thinking is a rare thing.

I think there’s a sea of evidence that shows politicians vote against the general consensus of their represented voters in favor of lobbies all the time. There are plenty of deep data analysis on the subject. Voters actually have little impact on actual policy. At times policies that are deeply unpopular with even 70% of voters but are constructed by monied lobbies sail through Congress.

I can back this up with a lot of evidence if you don’t believe it. Voters don’t actually choose much policy at all and they haven’t for a very long time. You live in a system modeled largely by corporate interests not the values of the people around you.

The candidate shouting the loudest that they’ll buck this trend ends up having the most lavish reception from the lobby .

 

[Jimi Jah]

I believe it. Dumb @ss voters have the representatives they voted for. They got what they want. Far too many simply check a D or R without any further thought. It's a team sports mentality.

"They don't always send their best".

 

[couragewolf]

Any time an actual ursurper hits the ground they mobilize unfathomable resources to integrate them into the system regardless of their starting intentions or ideals.