Is negative economic impact to California businesses a logical objection? I'm specifically thinking about AB-1263 and SB-704. As best I can tell, these two may make it untenable to operate a non-FFL firearm-related retail business in CA without an FFL01/07, because it impedes lawfully acquiring inventory. Operationally, the following also present liabilities for online retailers in and out of state (think: liability of verifying someone's ID - of whatever type/jurisdiction - over the internet).
Let's take Wing Tactical, LLC (Walnut, CA) as an example (I have no affiliation with them). They're an online-only seller of AR parts, but
not lower receivers or ammunition, and are likely not an FFL. Maybe their wholesalers/suppliers are ready to comply with rule changes 1/1/26 and they suffer no impact from the notification and acknowledgement requirements to acquire inventory. If they import their in-house product line, they will need to hire a middleman or obtain a FFL01/07 (subject to local laws and lease restrictions) to obtain barrels/uppers. Let's imagine they do $5M in sales annually, and half of their business is in state. The tax implications are potentially significant:
- $2.5M x 8% sales tax = $180,000
- $5M x 10% net profit x ~9% corporate tax = $45,000
- $0.5M wages x 10% state income tax = $50,000
- Lost taxes from spent wage income = $25,000?
So ~$300k/yr state tax revenue lost for one business. This cost seems trivial - let's zoom out.
If the entire California gun industry is worth $2B/yr, the state would argue that eliminating the industry in its entirety would be acceptable if it saved 143 lives per year (per $14M VSL - see below). Constitutionality aside, I'm not sure how one rebuts
any gun law from a financial standpoint.
Retrospectively, this analysis will always work out as long as gun deaths trend down. Between 2003 and 2023, California reported a 1.8 per 100,000 (avg. 650 per year) reduction in firearm deaths. Naturally, the handgun roster, ammo eligibility checks, GVROs, raising purchasing age to 21, expanded FSC, assault weapons restrictions, etc are cited as the sole causal factors and valued on paper at $8.8B/yr - more than value of the entire firearm industry. However, if California enters a recession and gun deaths increase (like they did during the COVID recession) despite passing an increasing number of gun laws, then the value (on paper) is harder to find.
If you ask the OAG, they claim these cases take tens of millions to defend. If true, that's cost effective. I'm skeptical, but it's likely among the cheapest 'solutions' as they see it.
This is a bit dark... But US government agencies quantify a
Value of Statistical Life ≈ $14M (
California DOT number). So if the state spends $10M defending Nguyen v Bonta and it saves one life, it's "worth it".