Domestic American economy about to get crushed?

[ikeo1]

The power of the tweet...

 

[star.3d]

I don't know how to trade based on Trump's bleats. People have tested Trump bleat trading strategies, but I have no insider connection - I couldn't have called the Intel deal or the MP deal, I don't know what the AstraZeneca deal is worth, and I doubt I could've executed a successful short today. So it's a mixed bag. I think Trump can sway certain markets, but I don't believe he is the macro trend. Equities got crushed on 'liberation day', the tariffs were suspended, and when they went back into effect (mostly) the market shrugged. If you're bullish on equities and believe they're being held back by tariffs and nationalistic trade policy... I think the thing to do would be go heavy into equities right now. You could wait for a 10-15% pullback - which may or may not come - but that timing is maybe secondary to deciding whether to be in equities at all.

I mentioned Trump v. V.O.S. Selections because there's a significant probability SCOTUS will rule against Trump's use of the IEEPA. Not a tweet, but this case needs to be in everyone's risk calculus. Trump won't be the one to lift tariffs - they're his signature policy.

As for crypto... yeah, it's getting crushed today. I bought BTCI.

 

[compulsivegungrabber]

I dont really understand how physical gold is such a great investment if our financial system collapses. If our system collapses, I dont think having a bunch of physical gold stored in your home is going to help you much. It would be an apocalyptic situation where day to day survival is probably the priority. If there arent any public safety services like a fire department, your home could go up in flames. What are you going to do with that gold then? Carry it around with you? Sounds like a great way to get robbed.

If there is a financial collapse, all "digitally" stored assets could be wiped out and "physical" assets could just be stolen by someone or some group bigger and badder than you.

The only real value anyone ever has is what they know and what they can do. So invest in yourself and you'll come out on top no matter the situation.

If/when people start making millions on crypto, they are going to get taxed to oblivion. And everyone who didnt "invest" in crypto is going to be voting for that. So it will all balance out in the end.

It’s heavy, you can put it in a pillow case and hit someone over the head with it.

 

[compulsivegungrabber]

Here's a solid counterpoint against the case for getting wrecked:

I do agree that at this point the government and the economy have evolved into a Siamese twin that will most likely kill both upon a traumatic separation, but I also feel that the belligerent puppeteers of the politicians are running the Crisper on overdrive making an economic teratism that will no longer conform to established economic thinking and theory. I feel like this is an economic experiment with no parallel in history as far as scale. At what point, 40 trillion, 50 trillion, 100 trillion, or at what percent age of GDP do the wheels fly off and the coach burst into flames?

 

[couragewolf]

I do agree that at this point the government and the economy have evolved into a Siamese twin that will most likely kill both upon a traumatic separation, but I also feel that the belligerent puppeteers of the politicians are running the Crisper on overdrive making an economic teratism that will no longer conform to established economic thinking and theory. I feel like this is an economic experiment with no parallel in history as far as scale. At what point, 40 trillion, 50 trillion, 100 trillion, or at what percent age of GDP do the wheels fly off and the coach burst into flames?

Somebody opened a new anonymous account yesterday 20m before the announcement shorted bitcoin and sold clearing just shy of 100 million dollars closing out within hours.

The insider trading is at a level previously almost unimaginable in scale.

 

[couragewolf]

2

Just 2 of the many bonehead economic moves by the Jr senator from Illinois were ,removing banks from the student loan program . his quote" lets just remove the middleman (banks ) " has cost taxpayers hundreds of billions as the schools raised prices knowing they get paid from Fred gov. .
Even worse was giving General Motors a bailout instead of forcing them into chapter 11 where problems could have been corrected and existing shareholders rewarded for their trust in GM .
As it turned out government owns 80% and the union pension fund owns 20% , the figures are close but possibly not exact .

Seeed to make a comment so insulting and lacking of content is quite typical of a teacher union public school attendee. Try learning something !

Bud just a few years ago we printed 6 trillion dollars and gave it to anyone that filled out an online form and then made it illegal to investigate those people after we determined about 2/3rds of it went to fraud.

I think your scope of scale and blind sidedness to being concerned about the ge bailout in light of this is a little nonsensical.

Insider trading cleared almost 2 trillion dollars the day of the first tariff announcement. The idea that you can defend one side and blame another in this situation is a bit absurd.

 

[couragewolf]

I do agree that at this point the government and the economy have evolved into a Siamese twin that will most likely kill both upon a traumatic separation, but I also feel that the belligerent puppeteers of the politicians are running the Crisper on overdrive making an economic teratism that will no longer conform to established economic thinking and theory. I feel like this is an economic experiment with no parallel in history as far as scale. At what point, 40 trillion, 50 trillion, 100 trillion, or at what percent age of GDP do the wheels fly off and the coach burst into flames?

Luke Gromen answers this question it’s effectively when you can no longer pay your military, pensioners, police etc without over inflating your currency so much no one can eat.

If you follow the grocery store index you’re seeing disinflationary signals and consumer pullbacks people are holding their last dinars or are simply too broke to buy stuff.

I think that means we’re finally on the precipice and lowering rates or raising them are both going to make things worse so the Fed can’t do anything to improve the situation.

 

[Rick308]

I wrote earlier about buying OKLO ,hopefully some you more intelligent people checked it out . started the year at 9.10 ,yesterday it was $170 and today it closed at $181.00 .
America will need lots of cheap reliable electricity and OKLO is positioned to supply it .

For an idea of how stocks outperform Gold and Bonds ,read Thomas Sowells book, Basic Economics .
I read lots of books, its one of the 5 best Ive read and the best book on economics ,covering every aspect in clear concise language .

 

[Jimi Jah]

Silver just past $50 per ounce. I told you all about a year ago that silver has a lot of room to grow when it was $32 per ounce.

 

[ikeo1]

I wrote earlier about buying OKLO ,hopefully some you more intelligent people checked it out . started the year at 9.10 ,yesterday it was $170 and today it closed at $181.00 .
America will need lots of cheap reliable electricity and OKLO is positioned to supply it .

For an idea of how stocks outperform Gold and Bonds ,read Thomas Sowells book, Basic Economics .
I read lots of books, its one of the 5 best Ive read and the best book on economics ,covering every aspect in clear concise language .

I agreed OKLO was a good one for nuclear, but they're still pre-revenue so its mostly speculation since the product hasn't hit yet but they're already worth $23B

 

[couragewolf]

I agreed OKLO was a good one for nuclear, but they're still pre-revenue so its mostly speculation since the product hasn't hit yet but they're already worth $23B

What could possibly go wrong

 

[Seeed]

Silver just past $50 per ounce. I told you all about a year ago that silver has a lot of room to grow when it was $32 per ounce.

You want a silver medal?

 

[Jimi Jah]

If you bought and made money you can donate a Morgan to me.

 

[ikeo1]

What could possibly go wrong

We’re still in the beginning of it.. there’s still room for it to run at least a few months hopefully..

 

[NorCALSpeed]

If the value of the dollar keeps dropping, won't stocks continue upwards , especially if they drop interest rates?

 

[Sloat]

If the value of the dollar keeps dropping, won't stocks continue upwards , especially if they drop interest rates?

Short answer: Yes, stocks broadly should go up.

But also...look at the "value" being created regarding AI and tell us it's not a Ponzi scheme. Everything here is basically buying stuff for stock shares, which the market somehow thinks is great value, even when the ultimate goal (AI use) is wildly unprofitable and has no road to profit. Ponzi schemes will return wild amounts of money and then have a sudden crash. Is that crash going to be tomorrow? Unlikely, but I think most people paying attention can see that it will come sooner or later.

 

[ikeo1]

Short answer: Yes, stocks broadly should go up.
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But also...look at the "value" being created regarding AI and tell us it's not a Ponzi scheme. Everything here is basically buying stuff for stock shares, which the market somehow thinks is great value, even when the ultimate goal (AI use) is wildly unprofitable and has no road to profit. Ponzi schemes will return wild amounts of money and then have a sudden crash. Is that crash going to be tomorrow? Unlikely, but I think most people paying attention can see that it will come sooner or later.
View attachment 103420

Since this is just starting it seeems like it has some legs to run a little before falling down. They have to lay down the infrastructure before it collapses. If it collapsed before the infra gets built then the money makers will bankrupt the country before we can start the new tech industry

It won’t happen in the first year of POTUS’s term. He has to have at least one good year. I don’t count this one with the c dollar dropping like a rock

 

[NorCALSpeed]

Since this is just starting it seeems like it has some legs to run a little before falling down. They have to lay down the infrastructure before it collapses. If it collapsed before the infra gets built then the money makers will bankrupt the country before we can start the new tech industry

It won’t happen in the first year of POTUS’s term. He has to have at least one good year. I don’t count this one with the c dollar dropping like a rock

It's a weird time for sure. Quite a self-fulfilling prophecy at the moment. Either it will al fall and retail will get rugged, or one or two AI companies will actually start pulling in real revenue, though hardly profitable for years to come. Open AI's burn rate is INSANE.

This all feels a lot like Crypto in 2017 and the NFT craze. Froth and whatnot, mixed with uncertainty about inflation, tariffs, cost of living increase, and the country as a whole. It's all sending people sprinting to the markets.

Hold onto your butts.

 

[couragewolf]

It's a weird time for sure. Quite a self-fulfilling prophecy at the moment. Either it will al fall and retail will get rugged, or one or two AI companies will actually start pulling in real revenue, though hardly profitable for years to come. Open AI's burn rate is INSANE.

This all feels a lot like Crypto in 2017 and the NFT craze. Froth and whatnot, mixed with uncertainty about inflation, tariffs, cost of living increase, and the country as a whole. It's all sending people sprinting to the markets.

Hold onto your butts.

Wait did the crypto craze end

 

[Sloat]

Since this is just starting it seeems like it has some legs to run a little before falling down. They have to lay down the infrastructure before it collapses. If it collapsed before the infra gets built then the money makers will bankrupt the country before we can start the new tech industry

It won’t happen in the first year of POTUS’s term. He has to have at least one good year. I don’t count this one with the c dollar dropping like a rock

I agree, I think we're in for continued bull market, but likely more pronounced volatility spikes. I think near-term performance in non-AI stocks could be abysmal (nobody can afford anything right now, housing entirely unaffordable even with some price decreases, no job creation, gov workers not receiving pay as holiday spending starts, etc.), but the AI Ponzi scheme will continue, lifting the market for a while.